[tahoe-dev] Bayesian Approach to Black Swans

Josh Wilcox wilcoxjg at gmail.com
Sun Apr 5 21:32:35 UTC 2009

  I don't understand why Black Swans should be impossible to model
  I've read neither "Fooled by Randomness" nor "The Black Swan", so maybe I
don't know what a "Black Swan" is, but my naive impression is that they are
  If this is the case then mightn't we guesstimate their frequency with
some, presumably low, confidence due to their elusive nature, and
incorporate that belief into our model?
P.S.--  I am assuming a Bayesian paradigm.
On Sun, Apr 5, 2009 at 12:00 PM, <tahoe-dev-request at allmydata.org> wrote:

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>   1. Re: Josh's would-be GSoC proposal (Shawn Willden)
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------
> Message: 1
> Date: Sat, 4 Apr 2009 18:22:09 -0600
> From: Shawn Willden <shawn-tahoe at willden.org>
> Subject: Re: [tahoe-dev] Josh's would-be GSoC proposal
> To: tahoe-dev at allmydata.org
> Message-ID: <200904041822.09974.shawn-tahoe at willden.org>
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> On Friday 03 April 2009 05:25:45 pm zooko wrote:
> > Shawn looked at the "The Black Swan", but I think he decided that he
> > knew where it was going after reading only a part of it.
> No, I didn't.  I just commented that in the introduction the author seemed
> to
> miss the forest for the trees.  After reading further, he doesn't, he was
> just oversimplifying for the purposes of introducing the concepts.
> It's an interesting book.  The sorts of failures I worked on trying to
> model
> are firmly in "Mediocristan", though.  That doesn't rule out the
> possibility
> of Black Swan failure events, but by definition they're impossible to model
> effectively.  The solution is to model what we can, and to treat the
> results
> as an upper bound on reliability.
>        Shawn.
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> End of tahoe-dev Digest, Vol 25, Issue 4
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